Market Analysis
I've spent a career reading situations — races, rooms, records. Markets are no different. These are my current positions, the thinking behind them, and where I see them going.
Thesis
Market is not pricing in war-driven supply disruption sufficiently, and assumes a more speedy production recovery than likely, with Dec futures depressed vs. spot (~$95). Infrastructure damage from the Iran conflict is structural, not transitory — prices will not recover as cleanly as consensus expects. Asymmetric setup with meaningful upside.
Thesis
In the midst of an absolute mania. Korea has been the hot market du jour, but is acutely exposed to Strait of Hormuz disruption and faces jet fuel shortages. This ETF has been on fire but is vulnerable. Memory chip production requires inputs dependent on a stable energy supply, but market seems solely focused on the demand side of the equation.
Thesis
Australia is heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil with no significant strategic reserve. Energy storage infrastructure was not designed for sustained disruption. Structural vulnerability not yet priced in. Reliant on Chinese demand for many products, which may not prove as resilient as expected.
Thesis
Uranium producer positioned for the long-term nuclear renaissance in the US. AI-driven data center growth will require massive baseload power — nuclear is the most viable answer. May face near-term volatility from possible popping of the AI bubble, before the secular trend accelerates.
Thesis
Uranium enrichment play, complementary to CCJ. Same core thesis: long-term nuclear energy demand driven by data center build-out and the AI infrastructure boom. Buy and hold with conviction.
Thesis
Advanced small modular reactor developer. Needed to supply next-generation nuclear power to AI data centers. Early-stage but strategically positioned at the intersection of nuclear energy and AI infrastructure demand.
New position coming this week.